Harvard Youth Poll
Introduction
Young Americans strongly favor Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, but their decision to cast a ballot may depend more on their friends than their politics, according to a new Harvard Youth Poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School. The survey finds Harris leading Donald Trump by 28 points among likely voters under 30 (60%-32%), while revealing that peer influence could be the key factor in youth turnout — 79% plan to vote when they believe their friends will, compared to just 35% when they think their peers won't participate.
KEY FINDINGS:
- PEER EFFECT: When young Americans believe their friends will vote, 79% plan to vote themselves — compared to just 35% among those who think peers won't participate.
- HARRIS NATIONAL LEAD: Harris leads Trump by 20 points among registered voters under 30 (53%-33%) and by 28 points among likely voters (60%-32%).
- BATTLEGROUND TIGHTER: Harris's lead narrows to 9 points across seven key swing states (50%-41%) among registered voters.
- GENDER GAP DOUBLES: The gender gap has grown from 8 points in the spring to 20 points, driven by Harris's 30-point lead among women. Younger male Trump supporters are less likely to vote.
- DEMOCRATIC DOUBTS: Only 20% of young Americans are confident there will be a peaceful transfer of power after the election, regardless of who wins.
- VOTING SHIFTS: Half of likely voters plan to vote in person on Election Day, up from 37% in 2020, as mail voting declines post-Covid.
In this second wave of the Harvard Youth Poll this Fall, 2,001 young Americans between 18 and 29 years old nationwide were interviewed between October 3-14, 2024.
"Young Americans' attitudes, concerns, and candidate preferences come through loud and clear in our latest Harvard Youth Poll," said IOP Director Setti Warren. "As we approach the final sprint to Election Day, we see that young people across the country are continuing to pay attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard."
"The social dynamic of youth voting has never been more clear: when young Americans believe their friends will vote, they're nearly two and a half times more likely to cast a ballot themselves," said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director. "It's peer influence, not just politics, that could determine youth turnout this year—and ultimately who becomes the next president."
"The political gap between young men and young women has emerged as a key feature of this election. The Harris and Trump campaigns have deployed extensive resources to reach both groups. Overall, young voters break strongly for Harris in this poll," said Anil Cacodcar, Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. "Across party lines, young people are also unsure about whether there will be a peaceful transition of power following this election."
Seven key findings from the 49th poll in the series are below.
Key Takeaways
The importance of peer influence in closing days: Nearly 4-in-5 young Americans vote when their friends do.
A majority (58%) of Americans under 30 say they will "definitely vote" or have already cast their ballot. The social context matters — when young Americans believe most of their peers will vote, they're more than twice as likely to vote themselves. Among those who expect high peer turnout, 79% plan to definitely vote, compared to just 35% of those who believe fewer of their peers will participate.
How these young voters plan to cast their ballots marks a significant shift from 2020. Half (50%) of likely voters intend to vote in person on Election Day — up from 37% in 2020. Meanwhile, mail-in voting has declined since Covid, with 34% planning to vote absentee compared to 48% in 2020. Early voting intentions remain relatively stable, with 12% planning to vote early compared to 11% in the last presidential election.
Young voters show a strong preference for Harris nationally, though battleground states remain more competitive.
Among young registered voters nationwide (n=1,778), Harris leads Trump by 20 points (53% to 33%). Her margin expands even further among likely voters (n=1,350), where she commands a 28-point advantage (60% to 32%).
However, the race tightens in seven key battleground states. Across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin (n=303), Harris holds a narrower 9-point lead among registered voters (50% to 41%), with 4% supporting third-party candidates and 6% undecided. The state by state divides are stark: Harris leads by 34 points in states Biden won in 2020, but her advantage shrinks to 10 points in states Trump carried.
The gender gap widens since the spring: Harris shows dramatic gains among women voters while Trump's male support is concentrated among less likely voters.
The gender gap among young registered voters has more than doubled since Spring 2024. When President Biden was the presumptive nominee, there was a 9-point difference between young men (Biden +2) and young women (Biden +11) in a multi-candidate matchup. Now under Harris, the gender gap has expanded to 20 points, with Harris leading by 10 points among men and 30 points among women in a multi-candidate matchup.
Harris's support varies considerably across demographic groups, with several significant shifts since spring -- especially among young women of color.
Among registered voters:
- White men: a striking 20-point swing toward Democrats
- Spring 2024: Trump +21 (46% Trump, 25% Biden)
- Current: Trump +1 (44% Trump, 43% Harris)
- Non-white men: relatively stable
- Spring 2024: Biden +30 (45% Biden, 15% Trump)
- Current: Harris +23 (54% Harris, 31% Trump)
- White women: Solid 9-point Democratic gain
- Spring 2024: Biden +4 (31% Biden, 27% Trump)
- Current: Harris +13 (50% Harris, 37% Trump)
- Non-white women: Dramatic 34-point surge
- Spring 2024: Biden +21 (36% Biden, 15% Trump)
- Current: Harris +55 (70% Harris, 15% Trump)
Trump shows a notable divide in support among young male voters based on their likelihood of voting. While Harris leads decisively among likely voters in this demographic (55% to 38%), Trump holds an 11-point advantage (37% to 26%) among those less certain to vote, with 29% undecided in this latter group.
Additionally, we find that 59% of Trump supporters say they will "definitely" vote compared to 71% of Harris supporters who tell us the same.
Young Americans express deep concerns about post-election stability.
Only one in five young Americans (20%) express unconditional confidence in a peaceful transfer of power after the 2024 election, revealing significant concerns about political stability. The data suggests:
- Just 20% express full confidence in a peaceful transition
- Combined, 42% have conditional or no confidence in a peaceful transition
- 18% explicitly expect no peaceful transfer
- 14% expect peace only with a Harris victory
- 10% expect peace only with a Trump victory
- Uncertainty dominates: 37% "don't know"
Post-debate impact: VP candidates see shifts in favorability.
While both Harris (September: 50% favorable, October: 53% favorable) and Trump (September: 31% favorable, October: 30% favorable) maintained stable favorability ratings through October with registered voters, both vice presidential candidates experienced notable changes following their October 1st debate:
- Tim Walz
- Name recognition rose 10 points to 75% among registered voters
- Favorability increased 5 points (42% to 47%)
- Unfavorable ratings also climbed 4 points (23% to 27%)
- Net favorability: +20 points (up from +19 in September)
- JD Vance
- Name recognition increased 7 points to 79%
- Favorable ratings improved 7 points (19% to 26%)
- Unfavorable ratings held steady at 53%
- Net favorability: -27 points (an improvement from -33 in September)
Despite Vance's post-debate gains, he continues to trail Walz significantly in net favorability, with a 47-point gap between the running mates (-27 vs. +20).
Harris commands trust on abortion and working class issues; the economy, immigration, and Israel-Hamas show divides between registered and likely voters.
Tracking five key issues since September reveals consistent patterns in candidate trust, though significant gaps emerge between registered and likely voters. Harris's advantage varies notably by issue and voter category:
Strong Harris Advantages:
- Abortion Rights
- Registered voters: Harris +36
- Likely voters: Harris +41
- Strengthening the working class
- Registered voters: Harris +17
- Likely voters: Harris +25
Competitive Issues:
- Immigration
- Registered voters: Harris +3
- Likely voters: Harris +12
- Economy
- Registered voters: Harris +2
- Likely voters: Harris +11
- Israel-Hamas War
- Registered voters: Trump +3
- Likely voters: Harris +4
The data shows a clear pattern: Trump performs better among registered voters than likely voters across most issues, with the gap particularly pronounced on the economy, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas war. Harris's strongest advantages remain on social and economic justice issues, while maintaining smaller but notable leads among likely voters across all tracked issues.
Candidate qualities and attributes: Harris leads on the most valued traits.
Young voters prioritize competence and honesty above all other presidential qualities measured in the survey, with Harris holding significant advantages in both areas. When asked to choose the most important presidential attribute of those listed — competence was the clear winner.
Most Valued Presidential Qualities:
- Competence: 38%
- Honesty: 26%
- Strength: 12%
- Empathy: 8%
- Relatability/Patriotism: 6% each
- Sense of humor: 1%
Harris maintains her September advantages over Trump on these important leadership qualities among registered voters, with the gap varying significantly by trait.
- Empathy: Harris +38
- Relatability: Harris +28
- Honesty: Harris +27
- Competence: Harris +24
- Strength: Harris +9
- Sense of humor: Harris +2
- Patriotism: Trump +1
Young white male voters diverge notably from other groups, giving Trump stronger ratings on: personal strength, patriotism, and sense of humor. These perceptions remain largely unchanged since September, suggesting stable character assessments despite ongoing campaign developments. The data reveals a clear pattern: Harris dominates on traditional leadership qualities, while ratings on more personal characteristics show a tighter race, particularly when filtered through demographic lenses.
Methodology
This poll of 2,001 18-to-29-year-olds was organized with undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP) and supervised by John Della Volpe, Director of Polling. Data were collected by Ipsos Public Affairs using the KnowledgePanel. KnowledgePanel provides probability-based samples with an "organic" representation of the study population for measurement of public opinions, attitudes, and behaviors. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish between October 3 and 14, 2024. The target population for this survey is U.S. residents between the ages of 18 and 29. Data are weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 2.64%; for registered voters it is +/- 3.05% and it is +/- 3.61% for "likely voters."