Harvard Youth Poll
48th Edition
Fall 2024
Introduction
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.
The poll also finds:
- A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
- A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
- Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
- Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
- Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
- Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
- The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception.
Since 2000, the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP) has provided the most comprehensive look at young Americans' political opinions and voting trends. It provides essential insight into the concerns of young Americans at a time when the nation is confronting numerous challenges both at home and abroad. President Kennedy once said, "It is a time for a new generation of leadership, to cope with new problems and new opportunities." The IOP is preparing a new generation of political leaders to confront these very challenges and gain the ability to successfully lead in today's complicated political landscape. Identifying areas of concern through the Harvard Youth Poll lets tomorrow's political leaders get started on ideas, strategies, and solutions, and allows them to decide today what the next generation of political leadership needs to look like.
The first Fall 2024 Harvard Youth Poll surveyed 2,002 young Americans between 18 and 29 years old nationwide, and was conducted between September 4-16, 2024.
"As we head into the final weeks of the 2024 presidential election season, the 48th Harvard Youth Poll serves as a critical barometer about the attitudes, concerns, excitement, and candidate preferences of our nation's young people," said IOP Director Setti Warren. "From climate change, abortion, gun violence, and more, young people are ready yet again to make their voices heard."
"This poll reveals a significant shift in the overall vibe and preferences of young Americans as the campaign heads into the final stretch," said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director. "Vice President Harris has strengthened the Democratic position among young voters, leading Trump on key issues and personal qualities. Gen Z and young millennials' heightened enthusiasm signals a potentially decisive role for the youth vote in 2024."
"In just a few weeks, Vice President Harris has drummed up a wave of enthusiasm among young voters. The shift we are seeing toward Harris is seismic, driven largely by young women. Our poll provides a deep dive into the values of this generation that will drive them to the polls in November," said Anil Cacodcar, Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. "Harris is enjoying a perfect storm of personal appeal, policy support, and positive reach on social media."
Five key findings from the 48th poll in the series are below.
Key Takeaways
Kamala Harris holds a 23-point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters under 30 in a multi-candidate matchup; among likely voters, the Vice President's lead extends to 31 points.
Kamala Harris has established a commanding lead among young voters in both 5-way and 2-way matchups at this stage of the 2024 campaign. According to the Fall 2024 Harvard Youth Poll, Harris leads Donald Trump by 17 percentage points among young adults under 30 in a multi-candidate field. Her advantage expands to 23 points among registered voters and a substantial 31 points among likely voters.
These figures represent a significant improvement over Joe Biden's position earlier in the election cycle. The Spring 2024 edition of the Harvard Youth Poll had shown Biden leading Trump in a multi-candidate field by 3 percentage points among young adults under 30, 7 points among registered voters, and 13 points among likely voters. Harris's current numbers demonstrate a marked strengthening of the Democratic position among young Americans as the election approaches.
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Notably, the gender gap, which stood at 17 points in the Spring poll, has nearly doubled to 30 points. While both men and women are moving toward Harris, the rate of female support eclipses male support.
- Likely male voters: Harris 53% - Trump 36%
- Likely female voters: Harris 70% - Trump 23%
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The impact of independent and third-party candidates has dwindled since Spring 2024. Such candidates captured 17% of the vote (likely voters: 14%) in March but only receive 5% (likely voters: 3%) in this poll.
In a two-way contest, Kamala Harris leads Trump 54%-33% among all young adults, 59%-33% among registered voters, and 64%-32% among likely voters.
For context, exit polls in 2020 reported President Biden winning the youth vote, 60% to 36%.
A majority of young Americans report that they will "definitely" vote; young Democrats are more engaged than Republicans and independents.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of young Americans tell us they plan to "definitely" vote in the upcoming election. Among registered voters, the number rises to 72%. In the Spring edition of the poll, there was not a meaningful partisan gap. Democrats and Republicans were roughly as likely to say they would be voting (Democrats +2). Today, we find Democrats are far more enthusiastic (+14) than their Republican counterparts.
- March 2024: 66% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans responded that they would "definitely" vote in the November election
- September 2024: 74% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans responded that they would "definitely" vote in the November election
Much of this increased enthusiasm among Democrats is tied to Kamala Harris as their party's nominee. More than four-in-five (81%) of Harris supporters in a direct match-up with Trump are enthusiastic about voting for her, nearly doubling the 43% of Biden supporters who said the same in March.
Harris dominates Trump on personal qualities and the key issues facing young Americans in 2024.
Young Americans give Kamala Harris strong ratings relative to Donald Trump on the important presidential qualities of empathy (+33) , relatability (+24), honesty (+22), and competence (+19).
Among likely voters, Harris's lead on personal qualities becomes even more pronounced, with a 43-point advantage on empathy and a 36-point lead on relatability.
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On which candidate is more trusted on the issues, the Vice President holds at least 20-point margins among all young adults on climate change (+32), abortion (+31), education (+28), health care (+26), gun violence protection (+25), and protecting democracy (+23). The Harris lead expands on every quality and issue when considering those most likely to vote.
The economy remains a contentious issue, with Trump holding a slim 1-point lead among all voters, highlighting an area where campaigns may focus future efforts.
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Young Americans show strong support for progressive policies; Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters reject Project 2025.
The survey, which asked respondents about their stance on a range of six policies that are relevant to the 2024 presidential contest, revealed:
- Prescription Drug Price Caps: An overwhelming 74% of young Americans support capping prescription drug prices, with 54% strongly in favor.
- Tax-Free Tips: 66% support eliminating taxes on tips, with 45% strongly supporting this measure.
- Abortion Rights: A nationwide law to legalize abortion in most cases garnered 59% support, with 45% strongly in favor.
- First-Time Homebuyer Assistance: 55% support providing $25,000 to first-time homebuyers.
- Immigration Policy: Mass deportation was opposed by a plurality, with 47% against compared to 37% in support; 13% were unsure.
- Foreign Policy: An arms embargo with Israel received 32% support, but notably, 44% of respondents indicated they "don't know" their stance on this issue.
We found that Project 2025 held a name recognition of 54% among young Americans, with only 6% reporting favorable views and 48% rating the concept unfavorably. When we narrow the lens to registered voters, we find that name recognition is twice as high among Democrats (73%) as Republicans (36%). The breakdown of favorability among political affiliations is as follows:
- Democrats: 4% favorable, 69% unfavorable
- Republicans: 14% favorable, 23% unfavorable
- Independents: 5% favorable, 43% unfavorable
Views of Harris's job approval have improved since the Spring; majorities have encountered memes about Harris or Trump online in the past month.
While President Biden's job approval rating among young Americans remains steady at 32% (31% in Spring 2024), views of Kamala Harris's job performance as Vice President have increased significantly, from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now. Overall, 47% of young adults view Harris favorably, 42% unfavorably, giving her a net favorability of +5. Her running mate Tim Walz also enjoys a positive net favorability of +14. In contrast, Donald Trump and JD Vance face significant unfavorability among young people, with net ratings of -30 and -28 respectively.
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Fifty-three percent (53%) of young adults under 30 have encountered memes about Kamala Harris online in the last month; and 56% have said the same about Donald Trump. When asked what impact the memes had on opinions of the candidates, we found that 34% of young adults said it positively influenced their opinion of Harris, 16% negative — and 50% no effect.
The reaction to the Trump memes had the opposite effect. Only 13% of those who saw the memes say it positively impacted their view of the former president, 26% say it negatively impacted their opinion — while 61% say it had no effect.
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Methodology
This poll of 2,002 18-to-29-year-olds was organized with undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP) and supervised by John Della Volpe, Director of Polling. Data were collected by Ipsos Public Affairs using the KnowledgePanel. KnowledgePanel provides probability-based samples with an “organic” representation of the study population for measurement of public opinions, attitudes, and behaviors. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish between September 4 and 16, 2024. The target population for this survey is U.S. residents between the ages of 18 and 29. Data are weighted to reflect population estimates based on age, race/Hispanic ethnicity, education, household income, census region by metropolitan area, and primary language within Hispanics. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 2.65%.