Harvard Youth Poll

As the long primary season begins to wind down, all indications from our survey of N=2,452 18 to 24 year olds are that they are preparing to vote in November in significant, if not, record numbers -- further extending the trend of increased participation that began in 2004 and extended to the 2006 mid-term elections. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of eligible young voters (72% of college students and 61% of those not in college) indicate that they will participate in the general election, which is an increase of three percentage points (3%) since our November 2007 survey.

Notably, every measure of political engagement has increased since our last survey, strongly indicating that young Americans are following the debate and ready to participate in November. Young Americans who consider themselves to be politically engaged or active increased 5 percentage points, from 35 percent to 40 percent. Nearly three in four (73%) consider voting to be a civic duty, 70 percent say that they have been following the campaign for president closely -- and a majority (56%) of 18-24 year olds said that if the campaign that they supported provided an opportunity to volunteer in some way, they would be “very” (12%) or “somewhat interested” (44%).

Compared to this point in the calendar during the 2004 campaign cycle, which saw a 31 percent increase in youth participation compared to 2000, the percentage of college students who say that they are definitely voting has increased 10 percentage points (62% to 72%) and the percentage of college students who are following the campaign closely increased 11 points, from While much attention has been focused on the role that Senator Obama’s campaign has had on energizing the youth vote -- most indications from this survey and others conducted by IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe are that participation in November transcends any one candidate or idea.

“Every person's vote counts in this country. My vote alone will not make a difference but it is the voice of the whole that matters and the only way Ican be part of that is to vote.” - Female, 23, College

Approximately a third (32%) of 18 to 24 year oldswho plan to vote in November tell us that theyare voting because it is their “right and/or responsibility,” 14 percent are voting to have “theirsay,” 13 percent are voting “for a new direction,” 11 percent are voting because they know that “every vote counts” and 10 percent are voting because they “care who the next President is.”

In our March 2007 and November 2007 surveys, Senator Obama held slight leads over Senator Clinton among 18-24 year old primary voters, while Senator Clinton maintained solid leads in most 18+ national polls during the same timeframe. In November 2007, Obama led Clinton 38 percent to 33 percent, and in March he led her, 35 percent to 29 percent.

When 18 to 24 year olds who plan to vote for a Democrat in November (n=807) were asked which candidate they prefer to be the party nominee -- 70 percent chose Barack Obama and 30 percent chose Hillary Clinton.

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With a preference of more than 2:1 it is not surprising that a solid majority of every major subgroup that we measured preferred Obama, except the small group of married Democrats who support Clinton, 54 to 46 percent.

When young Democrats were asked in an open-ended question why they support Obama or Clinton, a plurality (25%) of Obama voters indicated that “change” was the primary reason behind their vote, followed by “character” (16%), “agree with him on the issues” (12%), “hope and unity” (10%) and prefer “him to Clinton“ (10%).

“The way he's running his campaign. He's building a grassroots campaign that's supported from the bottom up in all 50 states, rather than getting donations from corporations and lobbyists and only campaigning in the big states. Actions speak louder than words.” -24, Male, College

“I believe out of all the politicians today he is by far the most honest. While he may not be the most experienced, he is charismatic and can give this country something to believe in which I think is something that we desperately need.” -19, Female, College

For Clinton voters, “experience” (43%) was the primary factor behind their vote, followed by “agree with her policy ideas” (21%) and “she’s a woman” (11%).

“Don't get me wrong, I admire Obama for his sense of bringing greatly needed change to this wrecked country. However, with the vast number of issues plaguing our country, we need a candidate with experience who knows how to maneuver in the political realm.” - Male, 19, Non-college

“Because she has put years into political Issues. And she has a remarkable way of being in tune with world issues. Her knowledge of the world and this country are profound and unlike anything I’ve ever seen.” - Male, 24, Non-College Male

The strong preference that young Americans have for Senator Obama is further illustrated when each of the Democratic campaigns are matched again Senator McCain.

Among 18 to 24 year olds, Senator Obama bests Senator McCain by 21 points, 53 percent to 32 percent -- while Senator Clinton beats Senator McCain by five, 44 percent to 39 percent. With Ralph Nader in the mix, Obama maintains his 21 point lead and beats McCain, 50 percent to 29 percent -- with 4 percent for Nader; Clinton beats McCain, 41 to 34 -- with 7 percent for Nader.

In 2004, when Senator Kerry narrowly lost the election to President George W. Bush, he led among college students 48 to 38 percent (5% for Nader) at this stage in the campaign; among college students now, Obama leads McCain by nearly three times that number (54% to 28%) -- Clinton leads among college students by four points (41%-37%).

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Although Senator Clinton’s base vote is smaller than Senator Obama’s, those who plan to vote for her seem as committed as Senator Obama’s. For example, of those who say they would “definitely vote” for Senator Clinton in November against Senator McCain, 63 percent report that they were interesting in volunteering on her campaign if asked; 65 percent of Senator Obama’s supporters say the same; whereas 54 percent of Senator McCain’s base say they would be interested in volunteering on his campaign.

The following table compares the performance of the two Democratic campaigns in a hypothetical three-way race with Senator John McCain and Ralph Nader.

For the first time since we began asking the question in 2002, the poll shows that the economy is the most important national issue in the eyes of young Americans between the ages of 18 and 24. Barely on the horizon in our November 2007 survey, the economy is now the top concern for 30 percent of those who responded to our open-ended question. The war in Iraq was mentioned by 20 percent as the top issue, followed by health care (9%), social issues (6%), environment (5%), education (3%) and foreign policy (3%). The chart below highlights the changes between the Fall and Spring surveys.

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With 70 percent of college students indicating that they think it will be difficult for students in their class to find a job after graduation (up from 60% in Spring 2006), there is little doubt that the economy is an issue that is highly relevant to young voters. To probe deeper into this and other top issues that have been discussed during the primary season, the IOP polled young people on 10 issues and asked two questions: First, how important was each issue when deciding who to support in November; and second, how personally relevant was each one to you. Ranging from general issues like “foreign policy” to specific ones such as the “outsourcing of jobs,” this exercise again resulted in the economy being far and away the most important and relevant issue at this point in the campaign.

The following table summarizes this battery of questions and illustrates that although the economy is number one in the minds of young people, candidates who connect to personally relevant issues such as 1) cost of tuition -- which 84 percent of college students find relevant and 61 percent of those not in college find relevant, and 2) the environment -- which 66 percent of college students and 60 percent of non-college 18 to 24 year olds find relevant -- are likely to develop a rapport, trust and potentially a vote from young America.

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Immigration, while trailing behind the economy, Iraq and health care in terms of top of mind resonance, is clearly a very important topic and will be a key issue in the presidential campaign. For this reason, the students in our IOP survey group chose to focus on this issue in some detail -- finding that while this generation of young Americans believes generally in amnesty and the notion that immigration is a core American value, limits must be in place to prevent illegal immigrants from becoming a burden on governmental resources.

Perhaps most important to this debate moving forward, approximately a quarter (24%) of young Americans that we polled seem unsure in their opinions on this important topic -- and therefore could tip the scales in this debate as more information is presented to them.

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The subgroups within the youth population that are more likely to favor the amnesty program defined above include:

• Democrats (56% support, 23% oppose);
• Those from the Western states (50% support, 30% oppose);
• Women (51% support, 27% oppose);
• Hispanics (63% support, 13% oppose);
• and Asian Americans (51% support, 19% oppose).

(Net Importance (% indicate issue is important minus % indicate issue is not important); Net Relevance (% indicate issue is personally relevant minus % indicate issue is not personally relevant); Total (Net Importance plus Net Relevance)

Segments of the cohort that do not support amnesty, or where levels of opposition are higher than other groups, include:

• Republicans (35% support, 46% oppose);
• Mid-westerners (42% support, 37%
  oppose);
• and Whites (43% support, 38% oppose)

Beyond the specifics surrounding amnesty, by more than a 5:1 margin (64% agree, 13% disagree), young Americans believe that “allowing immigration is a core American value,” and by approximately 2:1 margins they believe that “immigrants strengthen our country by providing a key labor source” (49% agree, 26% disagree) and “immigrants strengthen our country by increasing its cultural diversity” (45% agree, 27% disagree).

While the concept of immigration works for most young Americans, the reality of providing governmental assistance to millions of new Americans also sets in, as nearly half (49%) of 18 to 24 year olds agree with the statement that “immigrants burden American schools, government facilities and other similar institutions by failing to learn English.”

The youngest cohort of American voters draw a line and delineate between specific services that illegal immigrants ought to be entitled to (e.g., access to emergency medical attention and public schools) and which ones they should not.

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Access to driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants has already proven to be a key issue in the Democratic primaries and will likely become even hotter during the general election campaign and could prove to be an important wedge issue for John McCain. This is one of the few issues that a majority of nearly every group supports the Republican candidate’s position -- in fact, among young Hispanics, only 53 percent support while 34 percent oppose access to driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants.

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One of the main areas where 18 to 24 year old college students and those not in college have a significant divergence in opinion is on the future of the world economy. When we polled young Americans on who they predicted would be the world’s leading economic power in 20 years 3 -- a solid plurality (40%) of college students suggested China, 26 percent answered the United States and 18 percent the European Union; when the same question was asked of those not in college, 36 percent answered the United States, 31 China, 16 percent the European Union and 11 percent Japan.

According to a February 2008 Gallup Poll, 44 percent of adults nationwide believe China will be the world’s economic power and 31 percent say the United States. NB: In the same Gallup Poll, 40 percent say that China is the leading economic power today.

Republicans (39% U.S., 31% China) are the most optimistic about America’s economic future, whereas Democrats (28% U.S., 37% China) and Independents (27% U.S., 37% China) are less sanguine.

Although some debate exists among Americans young and old regarding which nation will be the leading economic power in 20 years, there is little debate among young Americans that the United States will be the world’s dominant military power. Sixty-four percent (64%) of all 18 to 24 year olds surveyed (65% of those in college, 64% of those not in college) believe that the U.S. will be the reining military power. The U.S. is followed by China at 17 percent, North Korea at 6 percent, and Russia and the European Union at 4 percent each.

For many years now, the IOP poll has highlighted the significant role that young Americans believe the United Nations must play in world affairs. They believe that the U.N. and other countries -- not the U.S. -- ought to take the lead in solving international crises and conflicts. This sentiment holds true in this survey as well as 41 percent of 18 to 24 year olds believe that the United Nations will be the world’s leading peacekeeping power in 20 years. Close to a quarter (23%) believe that the U.S. will play that role, 16 percent say the European Union and 12 percent say NATO.

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For the last four years, we have focused a significant portion of our Spring IOP survey on a statistical model that segments America’s youth vote into four very distinct clusters. In 2004, using this model based on discriminant analysis, we reported that over half of all young people defy traditional left-right political labels, instead their political affiliations and typology are predicated on their level of religiosity. The four segments of America’s ideology are -- Traditional Liberals (31% shown in dark blue in the chart below), Traditional Conservatives (12% in red), Secular Centrists (42% in gray) and Religious Centrists (15% in light blue) --and understanding the demographics, attitudes and level of political participation of each is key to winning elections in the United States (other research that we have completed indicates that similar segments exist among older members of the electorate as well.

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Four months after the 2004 election between George W. Bush and John Kerry, Religious Centrists indicated that their vote was split evenly, 47 percent each for Bush and Kerry, while Secular Centrists preferred Bush by 30 points.

Accounting for 15 percent of all young voters, Religious Centrists are one of the most interesting and important segments of the electorate as they hold seemingly paradoxical views -- sometimes looking like Traditional Liberals and other times lining up with Traditional Conservatives.

Religious Centrists, which are mostly minority in composition (42% White, 33% African American/Black, 19% Hispanic) currently prefer Barack Obama to John McCain 65 percent to 19 percent (with Nader in the race) and Hillary Clinton to John McCain, 56 percent to 26 percent.

Two-thirds (66%) say that religion plays a “very” important part in their lives -- and when it comes to some of the more important social issues of the day, align with Traditional Conservatives:

Concern for the moral direction of the
country;
School choice;
Homosexual relationships between
consenting adults;
Role of religious values in government;
Cutting taxes is best way to create
economic growth.
However, on several other key issues, Religious Centrists look and vote like members of the Democratic party and Traditional Liberals, specifically on:

Protecting the environment;
Universal health care coverage;
Affirmative action; and
Free trade.

Nearly equal parts Democrat (29%) and Republican (30%), Secular Centrists represent more than four in ten (42%) young Americans today. Whereas 66 percent of Religious Centrists claim that religion is a very important part of their lives, less than half that number --28 percent -- of Secular Centrists feel the same way.

Secular Centrists also differ greatly in their opinions toward Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. For example, in a three-way race between Obama, McCain and Nader, Secular Centrists prefer Obama to McCain, by only 2 points, 37 percent to 35 percent. Twenty-four percent (24%) are undecided.

When Hillary Clinton is matched against John McCain, McCain wins handily, 41 percent to 27 percent. The difference therefore between Obama and Clinton is 16 points.

Far less decisive when it comes to political issues, Secular Centrists are less likely to vote compared to the two traditional segments. They share Traditional Conservative views that the best way to spur economic growth is to cut taxes, but also share Traditional Liberal views that the environment should be protected, even at the expense of some jobs.

In an attempt to further understand how political views are formed, IOP students developed questions that asked poll respondents to select the two most important characteristics that influence their political views based on a pre-determined list of eight attributes (plus options for “other” and “none”).

Below is a table that illustrates the significant differences between young Democrats and Republicans, noting that young Republicans report being primarily influenced through their religion and sense of being an American; whereas young Democrats cite a combination of their economic class, age group and their party as key influencers.

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There have been dramatic changes in recent years in the way in which young people receive news and information. These changes are not only generational in nature -- but there are also important differences within this key 18 to 24 year old cohort of the Millennial generation. For example, for 18 to 24 year olds who are not on a college campus, cable television is the preferred medium for political news and information (35% cite this as top choice), followed by broadcast news for 31 percent. For those on a college campus, cable news (37%) is nearly tied with non-newspaper Internet sources (35%) such as Yahoo and CNN.com. Below is a chart that highlights the difference in information sources based on whether or not someone is attending a four-year college or university.

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According to our Spring 2006 survey, slightly more than three-in-four (76%) college students had Facebook accounts -- and 14 percent of them had used Facebook to promote a political candidate, event or idea. Two years later, in the midst of a presidential election, 86 percent of college students have access to Facebook (57% of non-college students) and 37 percent of them have used it to promote a candidate or issue.

Overall, 23 percent of all 18 to 24 year olds have used Facebook for political purposes. Those subgroups most likely include:

42% of graduate school students;
32% of college students;
30% of Traditional Liberals; and
30% of Traditional Conservatives.
In addition to Facebook, MySpace is also a highly popular social networking tool, especially for 18 to 24 year olds not on a college campus. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of 18 to 24 year olds not on a college campus have a MySpace account, compared to 59 percent of college students. Among all young people between 18 and 24 in our poll, 11 percent have used MySpace for political organizing. Those most likely include:

21% of Nader voters;
16% of Hispanics;
15% of Traditional Liberals;
15% of Western state residents; and
14% of those with landline telephones.

With both late night political satirists being recent guests at the Institute of Politics, members of our student survey group suggested asking the college age demographic for their overall preference -- Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert.

With overall name recognition of 84 percent, there is little doubt that Stewart and Colbert are playing some role in the political education/ entertainment of this generation.

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