CAMBRIDGE, MA — A national poll of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School found significant interest in the upcoming election with the likelihood of turning out to vote at levels not seen since the 2008 presidential election. The poll found 63% of respondents indicated they will “definitely be voting,” compared to 47% during this same time before the 2016 presidential election.

“More than 15 million young Americans have turned 18 since the last presidential election. The Gen-Z generation is facing a once in a lifetime experience of a global pandemic, economic instability, and racial reckoning,” said Mark Gearan, Director, Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School. “Young Americans are seeing first hand how their government impacts their day to day lives and they are ready to make their voice heard in this election.”

The poll also found a dramatic shift in how young Americans view the economy as being an important issue in the presidential election. Six months ago, the economy ranked fifth with only 6 percent of respondents listing it as their top issue. Today, it leads the list of important issues with 23 percent of respondents listing it as their top issue. 
 
The growing debate surrounding a COVID-19 vaccine has resulted in high levels of skepticism among young Americans. Only a quarter of young Americans say they will “definitely” get a COVID-19 vaccine. Broken down by political party, 34 percent of Democrats say they will “definitely” get a COVID vaccine, compared to only 14 percent of Republicans. Likewise, 9 percent of Democrats will “definitely not” get a COVID vaccine, compared to 25 percent of Republicans. The partisan divide on this issue suggests that the process of vaccine development has become politicized and that public health authorities will have to tailor their messaging in order to have young people get vaccinated. 

“Young Americans today find themselves on the frontlines of the “triple crises” of COVID. Their education has been disrupted, job prospects falter, and communities experiencing a racial reckoning causing constant concern about their daily livelihoods and the wellbeing of their friends and their families,” said Justin Tseng ‘22, Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. “Young voters are tuning in and facing our nation’s challenges head first. Don’t be surprised when they turn out at the polls in historic numbers.”

FALL 2020: 5 KEY TAKEAWAYS 

1. Young voter enthusiasm and the likelihood of turning out are very high. 63% of respondents indicated they will “definitely be voting,” compared to 47% during this same time in 2016. Our 2008 survey was only collected among young adults between the ages of 18 and 24. Among 18-24-year-old respondents to our survey, 62% say they will definitely vote, compared to 63% overall. The 2008 election saw the highest youth turnout since 1984, the earliest Census reporting of turnout, with 48.4% of 18-29-year-olds turning out to vote, according to the United States Elections Project according to the United States Elections Project. The turnout of young voters seems closer to 2008 compared to 2016. 

2. Since March, there has been a dramatic shift in how young Americans view the economy as being an important issue in the presidential election. It was the fifth most popular in the spring with 6 percent of respondents listing it as their top issue compared to it now being the most popular issue with 23 percent of respondents listing it as their top issue. This suggests a potential difference between young voters and voters in general (who may prioritize COVID). There are potential differences between generational and age cohorts, as young adults may be less established in the workforce compared to older Americans, and yet also at the least risk of COVID. Interestingly, compared to older adults, young voters do NOT give Trump high marks on handling the economy, the most important issue for a plurality of young Americans, suggesting that the ability for the relatively different priorities between generations to impact the election may be limited. 42 percent trust Biden, 34 percent trust Trump, and 23 percent trust neither. 

3. Only a quarter of young Americans say they will “definitely” get a COVID-19 vaccine. Broken down by political party, 34 percent of Democrats say they will “definitely” get a COVID vaccine, compared to only 14 percent of Republicans. Likewise, 9 percent of Democrats will “definitely not” get a COVID vaccine, compared to 25 percent of Republicans. The partisan divide on this issue suggests that the process of vaccine development has become politicized and that public health authorities will have to tailor their messaging in order to have young people get vaccinated.

4. Although young American voters are more likely to favor Joe Biden compared to Donald Trump, young Americans who support Trump are far more enthusiastic about their support. 44 percent of young Trump voters are very enthusiastic about voting for him while 30 percent of young Biden voters are very enthusiastic about voting for him. 

Despite this enthusiasm gap, Biden has still managed to expand on Hillary Clinton's lead in 2016, on his own performance in the Harvard Youth Poll Spring 2020, and even on President Obama’s performance in 2008. Among likely voters, 60% support the 2020 Democratic candidate, compared to 27% for Trump this election and 49% for Clinton in 2016. The last time likely young voters were this supportive of a candidate was President Obama’s 2008 election, in which our poll found likely voters broke 59% for President Obama and 30% for Senator McCain. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that approximately 19% of likely voters indicated they would vote third party in a four-way horse race in 2016, while only 6% have said the same in 2020.

5. Although young Americans support peaceful, COVID-Safe protest marches, they overwhelmingly disapprove of other more disruptive protest tactics. 74 percent approve of marching with a mask while only 9 percent approve of damage to public property, 6 percent approve of stealing and looting, and 5 percent approve of damage to public property. 

Methodology: 

This poll of N=1,206 18- to 29- year-olds, organized with undergraduate students from the Harvard Public Opinion Project (HPOP), was conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs using the IPSOS Government and Academic Omnibus Panel.  This is a probability-based internet panel approach.  Interviews were conducted between August 28 and September 9, 2020. Data were weighted to reflect population estimates for US adults between the ages of 19 and 29 based on age, race, education, census region, and income. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.22  percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.